Header Top Bar

WhatsApp Us +62 813 3355 7116
The forecast for Indonesia’s exports in 2024

As we look ahead to the economic landscape 2024, let’s take a moment to appreciate the diversity of Indonesia’s exports and their role in meeting global demands.

Indonesia’s export engine is truly impressive, from the mineral fuels that power modern industries to the iron and steel that build infrastructure around the world. Let’s explore the potential for this economic powerhouse and the positive impact it can have on the lives of people worldwide.

Insights into Indonesia’s export volume and growth

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) has announced that Indonesia’s exports for the year 2023 reached USD 258.2 billion, a decrease of 11.33% compared to the USD 291.90 billion recorded in 2022.

However, BPS noted that Indonesia’s exports for December 2023 amounted to USD 22.41 billion, 1.89% higher than November 2023, which stood at USD 22 billion.

According to BPS, the increase in December exports was driven by non-oil and gas exports, particularly mineral fuels, which rose by 10.07%, and local slag and ash, which increased by 37.37%.

Indonesia’s export outlook in 2024

The Ministry of Trade (Kemendag) projects that Indonesia’s exports will continue to grow in 2024. The projection for the export of goods and services in 2024 is a growth of 7.0%, reaching IDR 3,437 trillion. Moreover, non-oil and gas exports are estimated to grow between 3.3% and 4.5%.

Regarding trade performance, it is forecasted to range between USD 22.5 billion and 47.1 billion. Meanwhile, the service-to-gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is expected to grow by 1.8-2.0% in 2024.

Read more: Policies and prospects in Special Economic Zones in Indonesia

Indonesia’s leading trading partners

Indonesia's exports: A 2024 outlook

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), these five countries were the top destinations for Indonesian exports in 2023: China, the United States, Japan, India, and the Philippines.

Each nation has a strong appetite for specific Indonesian commodities, highlighting the diverse range of products driving the country’s export engine.

1. China

  • Indonesia’s total exports to China in 2023 amounted to USD 64.94 billion, constituting 25.09% of the country’s total exports.
  • The primary commodities exported to China include ferronickel, valued at USD 14.95 billion, lignite, coal, the liquid fraction of palm oil, nickel oxide sinters, and others.

2. United States

  • Exports to the United States reached USD 23.25 billion, accounting for 8.98% of the total in 2023.
  • Key commodities for this export include new pneumatic tires, electrical machines and apparatus, and refined palm oil.

3. Japan

  • Exports to Japan accounted for USD 20.79 billion, making up 8.03% of the total exports in 2023.
  • The major commodities exported to Japan involve bituminous coal, copper ores and concentrates, nickel mattes, and others.

4. India

  • India secured the fourth position, with export value reaching USD 20.29 billion, contributing 7.84% of the total exports in 2023.

5. Philippines

  • The Philippines is in fifth place, with exports valued at USD 11.04 billion, or 4.27% of the total.

Indonesia’s top 5 export commodities

According to the latest report by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia has made significant strides in its export industry.

The report highlights the country’s top five export commodities for 2023, with a total export value of USD 258.2 billion. This underscores Indonesia’s potential to grow and become a top player in the global market.

1. Mineral fuels

  • Mineral fuels (HS 27) were Indonesia’s most exported commodity, constituting 22.99% of the country’s total exports.
  • China emerged as the primary destination for mineral fuel exports, accounting for 29.55%, valued at USD 17.58 billion. India followed, contributing USD 7.54 billion (12.67%), and Japan with USD 6.67 billion (11.21%).

2. Animal/vegetable fats and oils

  • Another significant export was animal/vegetable fats and oils (HS 15), which totaled USD 28.45 billion and represented 10.99% of Indonesia’s total exports.
  • The major export destination was China, amounting to USD 6.08 billion (21.37%).

3. Iron and steel

  • Iron and steel were third among major exported commodities, with a value of USD 26.70 billion, contributing 10.32% to the total exports in 2023.
  • The primary export destination was China, accounting for USD 18.34 billion (68.67%).

4. Machinery and electrical equipment

  • Machinery and electrical equipment, along with their parts (HS 85), ranked fourth in terms of highest exports, reaching USD 14.35 billion and comprising 5.54% of the total.
  • The United States was the leading export destination, contributing USD 3.46 billion (24.09%).

5. Vehicles and spare parts

  • Vehicles and their parts (HS 87) emerged as the fifth highest exported commodity, valued at USD 11.15 billion, making up 4.31% of the total exports in 2023.
  • The primary export destination for this commodity was the Philippines, with a share of 25.78% or USD 2.88 billion.

Unleash your growth potential with InCorp

The Ministry of Trade anticipates a robust performance for Indonesian exports in 2024, forecasting a 7.0% increase in overall trade and 3.3-4.5% growth for non-oil and gas exports.

Ready to tap into this dynamic export market? InCorp Indonesia is your trusted partner. We offer tailored solutions to help businesses of all sizes navigate the export process, from initial planning to market entry.

Kickstart your exporting journey today:

  • Free consultation: Get expert advice and explore your options with a no-obligation consultation.
  • Comprehensive services: We handle everything from company registration and licensing to logistics and market research.
  • Proven expertise: Our team deeply understands the Indonesian export landscape and has a track record of success.

Let’s unlock your growth potential in the thriving Indonesian market by clicking the button below.

Get in touch with us.

Contact Us

What you'll get

A prompt response to your inquiry

Knowledge for doing business from local experts

Ongoing support for your business

Disclaimer

The information is provided by PT. Cekindo Business International (“InCorp Indonesia/ we”) for general purpose only and we make no representations or warranties of any kind.

We do not act as an authorized government or non-government provider for official documents and services, which is issued by the Government of the Republic of Indonesia or its appointed officials. We do not promote any official government document or services of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia, including but not limited to, business identifiers, health and welfare assistance programs and benefits, unclaimed tax rebate, electronic travel visa and authorization, passports in this website.

    Daris Salam

    COO Indonesia at InCorp Indonesia

    With more than 10 years of expertise in accounting and finance, Daris Salam dedicates his knowledge to consistently improving the performance of InCorp Indonesia and maintaining clients and partnerships.

Frequently Asked Questions

    The difficulty level depends on your country of origin. Indonesia lists restricted countries, including Afghanistan, Guinea, Israel, North Korea, Cameroon, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, and Somalia. Citizens from those countries will find the process complicated and challenging, with a high possibility that their application will be rejected.

    Within the scope of foreign direct investment in Indonesia, foreign investors can typically do business in two ways:

    • Set up a PMA (Perusahaan Modal Asing)
    • PMA is a local subsidiary in the form of a limited liability corporation for foreign investment reasons

    • Set up a RO (Representative Office)

    According to Law No. 25/2007 on Investment, foreign investors are required to establish a PMA company in order to make direct investments and conduct commercial and business activities in Indonesia. A PMA firm in Indonesia is a legally recognized business entity that can engage in various commercial and business operations as long as it complies with the current laws and regulations. As for RO, its purposes include conducting market feasibility studies and liaison activities.

    A newly established PMA company in Indonesia is typically provided with import facilities, tax holidays, tax allowances, or investment allowances.

    • Import facilities
      Investors in Indonesia, particularly in manufacturing, may benefit from import tax exemptions for capital goods and raw materials through the Master List Facility. The imported goods must meet specific criteria, such as not being produced locally or not meeting industry demand despite local production.
    • Tax holiday
      The government offers CIT reductions of 50% or 100% for 5–20 years for listed pioneer industries, based on investment value. After this period, a CIT reduction of 25% or 50% applies for two fiscal years. Non-listed sectors can also apply by meeting criteria demonstrating pioneer industry status.
    • Pioneer industries are industries that have a wide range of connections, provide additional value and high externalities, introduce new technologies, and have strategic value for the national economy.

    • Tax allowance
      For companies in certain designated areas or regions, the government may provide the following tax concessions:
      Net income reduction up to 30% of the amount invested, prorated at 5% annually for six years, on condition that the assets invested are retained for the same duration.
      Accelerated depreciation and/or amortisation deductions
      An extension of tax losses carried forward for a maximum of ten years
      A 10% (or lower if treaty relief is available) withholding tax rate on dividends paid to non-residents
      The applicant eligible has to meet high-level-criteria for the above tax facilities:
      High investment value or for export purposes
      High manpower absorption
      High level of local content
    • Investment allowance
      The government offers a reduction in net income of up to 60% of the investment, distributed at 5% annually over six years of commercial production, contingent upon the retention of invested assets for the same duration. To qualify, applicants must meet business line eligibility criteria and employ a minimum of 300 Indonesian workers in the project.
    • Super deduction
      This facility could be granted to certain businesses, such as:
      60% reduction in net income of the amount of tangible fixed assets invested for labor-intensive industries, distributed throughout a certain time frame.
      Up to 200% reduction in the gross income of the amount spent for human resources development in certain competency activities.
      Up to 300% reduction in gross income of the amount spent for certain R&D activities in Indonesia.

    To provide you with accurate pricing information for our visa and immigration consultation services, we consider the complexities of your inquiries and the dynamic nature of regulations in Indonesia. As a result, the pricing for the services may vary accordingly. For pricing details, please talk to our experts.

More on Export